Rajasthan, which has 25 seats, is understandably important for any party seeking to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP, which was voted to power in the state in the 2023 Assembly elections, achieved a clean sweep in all 25 seats in the 2014 and 2019 general elections. Repeat this performance may not be easy this time.
The BJP’s vote share has risen with every general election in the past 15 years: 36.6 per cent in 2009, 55.6 per cent in 2014, and 59.1 per cent in 2019. The Congress’s vote share has seen a 13-point decline Percentage between 2009 and 2019. However, in the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress did not see a significant decline in its vote share despite its loss, indicating that its core voters are still with it.
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There are signs that the BJP may not be able to win all 25 seats this time, because after a decade in power, its MPs face opposition to incumbents. The low voter turnout in the first phase on April 19 (58.28 percent compared to 63.71 percent in 2019 and 63.1 percent in 2014) is also not very encouraging.
Although the BJP won the 2023 state elections, three of the seven MPs who contested were defeated. The party had claimed at the time that it would win at least 150 of the 200 seats, but it ultimately won 115 seats, while the Congress retained 70 seats. Their vote shares varied by less than 2 percent.
The Congress in Rajasthan is now more united than it was in late 2023. The trading of allegations between rival factions led by Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot appears to have stalled after the electoral defeat. Party sources said Front line Tickets for the elections were distributed with both factions in mind.
Govind Chaturvedi, former deputy editor of a leading Indian newspaper, said: “The BJP will not get a hat-trick. The Congress is determined to win a large number of seats and the situation on the ground looks favourable. Eight to 10 seats will see a tough contest.”
Forming an alliance with the Communist Party of India (Maoist) in Sikar and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party in Nagaur is expected to boost the Congress’s prospects in areas where these parties have a support base. Both are partners in the India bloc.
The Congress also has a partnership with the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) in the Banswara-Dungarpur seat. Strangely, Banswara will witness a three-way contest as the Congress candidate, Arvind Dhamour, did not withdraw his nomination in time, due to communication problems. But the Congress leadership openly declared its support for Rajkumar Rawat, the BAP candidate.
Congress had difficulties finding candidates. It fielded a few former BJP MLAs whose party had refused to get a ticket. Likewise, the BJP has also brought in Congress leaders to its side. The Banswara-Dungarpur candidate is Mahendrajit Singh Malviya, who was elected on the Congress ticket from Bhagidora in the assembly elections but defected to the BJP in March this year. Left in a dilemma, the Congress leadership explored the idea of an alliance with the BAP, which had a presence in some seats reserved for tribal candidates. But the journey was not smooth at all. In a letter to All India Congress Committee president Ramila Khadia, the MLA wrote from the Scheduled Tribe headquarters at Kushalgarh in Banswara that an alliance with the PNG Party in Banswara and Udaipur was not a good idea and that the Congress would be better off. He competes alone. It is undeniable that there were some concerns about giving up seats to alliance partners in areas where the Congress party had a good chance of winning.
The BJP is fighting it alone
The BJP is fighting alone, without an alliance partner. Despite losing as many as 11 council members, including some who won by huge margins, the party faces strong anti-incumbency winds. Moreover, the party’s longest serving leader, former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, has neither come out of Jhalawar to campaign for the party nor has she been given any specific responsibilities. Her son, Dushyant Singh, the current MP from Jhalawar, is seeking re-election for the sixth time.
The issue of farmers’ grievances and women wrestlers may impact the BJP. The Jat community, a strong peasant community, is upset over the government’s failure to ensure minimum support price and guaranteed procurement. Issues of debt waiver and loans also anger the agricultural community. It cannot be overlooked that the wrestlers whose complaints were ignored by the center are all from the Jet community.
The sidelining of former BJP state president Satish Poonia, who is also a Jat, did not go down well with the community. Poonia, the former MLA from Amber Assembly segment, has been replaced by Chandra Prakash Joshi, MP from Chittorgarh, eight months before the Assembly elections. Poonia was not given any specific responsibility in the Lok Sabha elections; He was only given the charge of some constituencies in Haryana.
“Who knows what is in the mind of the high command. We have a chief minister whom no one knows. He is contesting from the safe seat of Sanganer,” said a frustrated BJP worker who was unhappy at the exclusion of leaders like Vasundhara Raje.
Besides the Jats, the Rajputs are also dissatisfied with the BJP. In Lalsot, in Dausa district, BJP supporters spoke of how BJP leaders did not come out in support of them when men like Sukhdev Singh Joghamidi and Anandpal were targeted. Joghamidi, the president of Karni Sena, a right-wing group representing Rajput interests, was shot dead on December 5, 2023. Anandpal Singh, a notorious gangster, was shot dead in an encounter in Churu in 2017. Although it can be safely assumed that since the Bank As the Rajput vote falls securely into the hands of the BJP, these factors could wreak havoc in a somewhat bipolar election.
The “dual engine” promise.
It appears that the ‘dual engine’ promise did not work in the Assembly elections to the extent that the BJP might have wished, and is unlikely to succeed in the Lok Sabha elections. The anxiety felt by the general public over the arrest of Chief Ministers Arvind Kejriwal (Delhi) and Hemant Soren (Jharkhand), accusations of misuse of central investigative agencies, and the electoral bonds corruption case, are all factors that could hurt the BJP. Moreover, the perception that the BJP is protecting corporate interests seems to have become acceptable to a section of voters.
Highlights
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The BJP won all 25 parliamentary seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
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In 2024, Congress may not be absent again.
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Congress has become more united in Rajasthan after the setback in the Assembly elections.
The low turnout on April 19 came as a surprise to all political parties. The door-to-door voter mobilization usually practiced by the Sangh Parivar during elections was reportedly missing this time. Following reports of low turnout, BJP workers are said to have instructed party workers to organize the campaign and ensure people get voting cards, which is one way to ensure people come out to cast their votes.
The low voter turnout may have prompted BJP leaders to resort to polarizing rhetoric. Before the first phase, the focus was on “Modi guarantees”, India’s global standing during Modi’s tenure, and the “corrupt” opposition. There was no polarizing campaign until Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly changed his stance in Banswara, accusing the Congress of appeasing Muslims and falling into the clutches of “urban Naxals”. Incidentally, the seat reserved for Banswara is one of dozens of odd seats where the BJP is facing a tough contest.
Modi claimed at the rally that Congress would redistribute wealth and resources to “those with more children” if it comes to power. He claimed that the Congress manifesto also promised to survey and redistribute individual properties and gold among other things. He said that the previous Congress government (under Manmohan Singh) had said that Muslims had the first right to the country’s resources. He also mentioned ghuspaithiyesOr infiltrators, a term taken to mean Muslims, drawing cheers from the audience.
The Congress challenged Modi to show that he said anything like that in his statement. She also petitioned the Election Commission of India (ECI), which sent a notice to BJP president JP Nadda for violating ethics rules. Nearly 17,000 citizens also petitioned the European Credit Commission.
266 candidates are competing for the 25 seats, including 19 female candidates. The Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded five women candidates. Congress, three. The BJP also renominated four Union Ministers – Bhupendra Chaudhary from Alwar; Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Jodhpur; Kailash Chaudhary, Barmer; Arjun Ram Meghwal, Bikaner, and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla from Kota. State President Chandra Prakash Joshi is the candidate from Chittorgarh. Prominent names in the Congress include Vaibhav Gehlot from Jalore, former Union minister and assembly president CP Joshi from Bhilwaraand former Cabinet Minister Pratap Khachariyawas from Jaipur.
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Rajasthan will witness a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP on 22 seats, and a three-way battle in Barmer and Banswara. There are at least 10 seats where Congress and its allies are expected to do well.
Modi, the star of the BJP’s election campaign, has been fielded in the second phase of polling. In the absence of a strong pro-Modi or pro-BJP and Vixit Bharat undercurrent, only the June 4 results will reveal the extent to which polarization politics helped the BJP in these elections.