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In less than a week, barring any post-election surprises, Maharashtra election decision will comeAs the election campaign reaches its final stages, decoding the seat-sharing agreement not only reveals the internal power dynamics of both the alliances but also gives an indication of what will happen when the votes are counted on November 23. What can happen; what can be done.
As expected, seats have been distributed among the alliances. Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi comparatively higher than government mandate MahayutiWhile the Congress has walked away with 100 seats (the highest number), its allies Shiv Sena (UBT) are not far behind with 90 and Nationalist Congress Party (SCP) with 85 seats. Two things stand out: Congress is contesting the maximum number of seats and NCP (SCP) is winning 85 seats.
Seat-sharing deals and power dynamics
In the Lok Sabha elections, it was the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) that contested the most seats and in the state assembly elections, it was widely expected that the Shiv Sena (UBT) would get the most seats. But given the Congress party’s inspired performance in June when it won 13 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested, the grand old party was able to argue its case more strongly at the negotiating table and secure the most seats.
For the longest time, Congress played the role of junior partner to NCP (SCP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) in the tripartite alliance, so it is a bit unexpected for Congress to get more seats than these two parties. Sharad Pawar as the brains and Uddhav Thackeray as the face – this has been a formula that has worked well for the MVA so far.
This formula has broken due to Congress contesting the maximum number of seats and Uddhav Thackeray not being declared the CM face. In the past, the Congress party has been guilty of being overconfident about its past election performances. Think about how the party, buoyed by victories in the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in December 2018, made a royal mess in the Lok Sabha elections in these states in 2019.
Another recent issue to consider Haryana debacleMore favorable treatment and a humbler approach towards its smaller allies could have helped the party unseat the BJP. If Maharashtra turns out to be another case of “within reach but beyond comprehension”, the party will have to seriously introspect how it treats its allies.
By allowing Shiv Sena (UBT) to contest more seats and declaring Uddhav Thackeray as the CM candidate in case of final victory, the party could have created a model for the MVA alliance to replicate in other states. This could also improve the party’s relations with current and potential allies in other states. there is one Strong undercurrent of regional pride (Marathi identity) Letting a regional outfit like Shiv Sena (UBT) lead the alliance by contesting more seats in the state could have helped the Congress and the MVA make it clear that, unlike the Mahayuti, this is not a national party-led alliance. . Important decisions are not taken in Maharashtra but in Delhi.
The second surprise about the MVA seat-sharing deal is that the NCP (SCP) is leading with 85 seats. While most of the bargaining over seats was confined to the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), with both parties wanting to contest more than 100 seats, it was widely said and expected that the NCP (SCP) would be satisfied with 60-70 seats. Will happen. But once again, showcasing his political skills, Sharad Pawar has been able to turn things around to get a very good deal for his party.
It can also be said that his party has a higher proportion of seats and the chances of winning are higher. Therefore, like the Lok Sabha elections, NCP (SP) may have the best victory percentage in the seats it will contest in this election.
Unlike the MVA, it has always been clear that the BJP is the undisputed boss of the alliance and its allies Eknath Shinde-Shiv Sena and NCP (Ajit Pawar) do not have much choice in most matters. The final seat-sharing numbers validate this approach.
BJP is contesting on 141 out of 288 seats in the state. This is just 11 less than the 52 seats it contested in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena in 2019. Shinde Sena managed to secure 75 seats, a number that would probably have been lower had the BJP had its own majority in the Lok Sabha and not been overly dependent on Shinde Sena’s seven MPs.
Eknath Shinde has certainly managed to survive much longer than most of his opponents. The same cannot be said about Ajit Pawar, who could barely get 50 seats for his party.
It is quite clear that Ajit Pawar’s party is not only the most inconsistent party in the grand alliance but is also the weakest link in the alliance. There is always movement of leaders from Ajit Pawar faction to NCP (SCP). If the Ajit Pawar faction fails to put up a credible performance and manages to retain power, this trend is likely to continue with more exits.
friendly fights
On expected lines, the fragmentation of the party system in Maharashtra and the subsequent plethora of alliances has had a side effect: friendly feuds between partners. Even though the term sounds contradictory, friendly fights can define and decide this election. The number of such friendly fights is more in Mahayuti than in MVA.
In the case of MVA, the only friendly contest between the three major parties is in Pandharpur, where candidates from both Congress and NCP (SCP) are in the fray. In the case of Mahayuti, the number of these friendly fights is up to eight.
Most of these friendly feuds are the result of the clash of egos of regional satraps of the parties who are unwilling to give up ground for their alliance. Therefore, it would be interesting to see whether these friendly fights have any impact, i.e., when partners engage in friendly fights on a seat in the region, the alliance’s chances on neighboring seats are affected.
The possibility of alliance partners and party leaders or cadres bringing down coalition partners cannot be ruled out. However, in some cases, friendly fights are the strategic option, as the BJP-led Mahayuti has done in Mumbai’s Mankhurd constituency.
In the Lok Sabha elections, it was the substantial lead taken by the MVA in the Muslim-dominated Mankhurd constituency that enabled it to defeat the BJP in the Mumbai North-East Lok Sabha constituency. Since BJP has cried “Vote Jihad”. In Mankhurd, though the BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde) have claimed the official alliance candidate to be Sena’s Suresh Patil, the NCP (Ajit Pawar) has fielded Nawab Malik.
Leaving aside the political rhetoric, the logic here is quite clear: the Mahayuti hopes that Nawab Malik will walk away with a large share of the Muslim votes, thereby helping the “official” Mahayuti candidate defeat the MVA candidate, sitting SP MLA Abu Azmi. Will get it. , The BJP appears to be adopting a similar strategy with the help of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena to divide the anti-BJP/anti-Mahayuti Marathi votes, especially in Mumbai.
For all practical purposes, MNS can be considered an unofficial ally of the saffron party. Raj Thackeray has said many times that if the need arises after November 23, his party will support BJP.
‘Real’ Shiv Sena and NCP
This election will probably settle the question about the “real” NCP and Shiv Sena. While Sharad Pawar’s party clearly seems to have an edge over the Ajit Pawar-led party, the question of which party is the real Shiv Sena is more complex and one that will probably require some more time to settle. In many ways, the Lok Sabha election results were misread and misinterpreted.
The Shinde faction claimed that it performed better than the Thackeray faction as it won seven out of 15 seats compared to SS UBT’s nine out of 21 seats. What seems to be conveniently forgotten is that two of these victories came in Thane district, i.e. Ekant Shinde’s home turf, and another in Mumbai North-West by a narrow margin – a margin of 48 seats.
Moreover, in my assessment – based on survey experiments and fieldwork conducted for research during the Lok Sabha elections – the Shinde faction had an exaggerated vote share.
Its vote share had increased due to the Modi factor and because a major part of the support for it came not from supporters of the undivided Shiv Sena but from BJP supporters. Therefore, Shinde Sena needs to perform better not just in the Thane-Konkan belt but in other areas as well. Poor performance in other areas will make Eknath Shinde just another regional satrap and weaken his party’s claim to be the “real” Shiv Sena.
Unlike Shinde Sena, Shiv Sena (UBT) had a more independent base and transferred votes to the Congress and NCP (SCP) across the state. Ironically, this hurt the party’s own prospects as it did not benefit to the same extent from mutual vote transfers from the Congress and the NCP (SCP). Therefore, while Shinde Sena is more dependent on its ally i.e. BJP, on the contrary, Shiv Sena (UBT) transfers its votes to its allies more readily. For example, in the Thane-Konkan belt where Shiv Sena (UBT) is facing a tough challenge and where it is contesting more seats than NCP (SCP) and Congress, it is almost on its own, Because Congress-NCP (SCP) does not have a strong presence in the area.
Despite regional pride and the division of the two regional parties being major issues in the campaign, it is quite ironic that it may be the performance of the two national parties that may be the most decisive factor in shaping the final decision.
Since 2014, the party and its alliance have faced defeat in several elections due to the Congress’s dismal performance in a direct fight with the BJP. In a surprising reversal of the trend, the grand old party had won 11 of the 15 seats where it faced the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. In the assembly elections, the Congress and the BJP are in a direct contest on 75 seats – more direct battles than any other two parties. Interestingly, most of these direct contests are in the Vidarbha region. Thus, it could be the Congress’s ability or inability to hold its own against the BJP in a direct fight – especially in Vidarbha, that could decide this election.
(An alumnus of St. Topics focus on voting behavior, and representation of minorities in India’s law making bodies. He is currently working on a PhD at Temple University. He is an upcoming student of M.Sc., where he will be doing research on electoral politics in India. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.The QuintNeither endorses nor is responsible for it.)
