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President Biden appears to be working on a very carefully crafted policy to allow Ukraine to use the US manufactured and supplied ATACM (Army Tactical Missile) system. Russia-Ukraine War,
First, and most importantly, it has limited its permission for use to the Kursk region, where Ukrainians hold a part of Russian territory. It is an effort to help Ukrainian forces in the region who face about 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops deployed for a counter-attack.
Secondly, his move seems to be in adjustment with the arrival of the new Trump administration on January 20 next year. It is well known that Trump has a different view of the war and US military aid to Ukraine. He has declared his intention to end it as soon as possible.
Third, Biden’s move appears to be aimed at Russia as much as North Korea. By deploying 10,000 troops somewhere in Kursk, along with supplies of artillery and ammunition, the North Koreans are changing the geopolitical dynamics of the Ukraine war, which has the US and NATO concerned.
Therefore, the goal of the ATACM strategy is to enable Ukraine to capture Kursk as a bargaining chip in the possibility that the Trump administration will call for a ceasefire and talk,
The Biden administration has not publicly confirmed the policy change. On Monday, a State Department spokesperson said only that the U.S. response to Russian-North Korean military cooperation “will be firm.”
On Tuesday, Ukraine launched its first attack on a border area with Russia with an ATACM system, according to Ukrainian media reports. No details of the exact area or target were given.
Why is the ATACM system important?
The ATACM system is a highly accurate surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of hitting targets up to 300 km. Ukraine already has the missiles but has been using them on targets in Ukrainian territory already occupied by Russia.
The system can be configured to carry two types of weapons. The first is a cluster system containing hundreds of bombs designed to attack lightly armored vehicles, aircraft, air defense systems and military concentrations over a wide area. The second type of weapon is a 225 kg bomb that can destroy hardened facilities and large structures.
Ukrainians occupy about 1000–1500 km² of the Kursk region. While the area provides a buffer zone to protect Kharkiv from Russian shelling and attacks, it has also forced the Russians to divert some forces to defend against incursions into their territory.
It has also provided Ukraine with a propaganda victory by announcing that it too is capable of infiltrating Russia, boosting the morale of Ukrainian forces who otherwise face serious attack from the other side.
Now, with the new US administration likely to put pressure on them for a ceasefire and negotiations, the main value of the Kursk offensive is the leverage it will provide Kiev in its negotiations with Moscow.
Still, this will be limited because Russia has annexed 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory – about 70,000 square km in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions and southern Zaporizhia, Kherson and the Crimea peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.
The US may expand the area in which ATACMS can be used depending on the evolving situation. But its initial use is permitted only in Kursk where there is a fear of a Russian/North Korean invasion. It will be used to target military bases, infrastructure and ammunition storage depots. Due to the fear of attack, Russia has already sent its fighter planes to the deeper airfields of the country.
Russia’s reaction
The use of the missile is unlikely to be decisive as the Ukrainians have only limited stocks, and it may not turn the tide of a war that is otherwise going badly for Kiev, especially in the east.
It could also have the effect that Britain and France would allow Ukraine to use their Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. It is a long-range cruise missile also used by the Ukrainians and has similar capabilities to the ATACMS.
The Russian reaction to the move has been harsh.
On Monday, his Foreign Ministry spokesman said Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles would draw an “appropriate and concrete” response. It added that an attack inside Russian territory “would represent the direct involvement of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia.”
On Tuesday, President Putin decided to sign a decree officially announcing the September 2024 date that changed Russian nuclear doctrine.
The new doctrine allows for a “massive launch” of air strikes against Russia, as well as the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an attack by a non-nuclear country backed by a nuclear-armed power.
Ukrainians are not happy with the sanctions being imposed on them by the US and the slow supplies. Many people say that Biden’s decision is too little, too late.
Russia has in the past threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It is difficult to predict how the current situation will develop. But there is no doubt that the Ukraine-Russia war has taken a dangerous and potentially destabilizing turn in the past few days.
(The author is a distinguished fellow of the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.The QuintNeither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
