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The second chart shows the vote share of the two main Indian block partners, JMM and Congress, in Jharkhand since 2009. Together, both have managed to get about 33 percent vote share. The 2024 election looks unpredictable, with both securing a combined vote share of over 38 per cent.
In this assembly election, the JMM led alliance definitely got an edge compared to the 37 percent votes received by BJP-AJSU. But when you add the vote shares of smaller Indian block partners in Jharkhand, that lead becomes a decisive and unassailable lead.
What is even more worrying for the BJP is that it will be very difficult for it to bridge this gap in the future.
JMM’s other alliance partners are RJD, CPI (ML) and other communist parties, and they are creating a wall for the BJP that may be insurmountable. In themselves, they have no importance. But together both have strengthened the lead of JMM-Congress over BJP-AJSU.
That is why he defeated the saffron party so easily. BJP also had alliance partners like JD(U) and LJP. But they managed to achieve a combined vote share of 1.5 per cent, which was not enough to bridge the gap in vote share between the two rival alliances.
This happened in 2019 and will be repeated in 2024. This has now become a secular trend whereby the JMM-led alliance will garner 42 per cent vote share even if its performance is poor, while the BJP-led alliance will struggle to reach 40 per cent. It could get worse as AJSU continues to lose electoral ground and now looks like a depleted force. Despite performing well, BJP seems to be stuck at one-third vote share.
For this situation to change, one of two things must happen in the future.
The only option for the BJP is to ensure that there is a huge jump in its own vote share. Can BJP do this?
Since 2014, the BJP has achieved several electoral achievements that seemed extremely difficult, if not impossible, such as breaching 40 per cent vote share in Uttar Pradesh.
Still, crossing Jharkhand may prove more difficult.
(Yashwant Deshmukh and Sutanu Guru work with CVoter Foundation. This is an opinion and the views expressed are those of the authors. The Quint Neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
