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1) 2024 general election is an aberration
The BJP would like to portray the results as a reversion to the mean and highlight the 7-2 scoreline as the BJP’s continued dominance along with the opposition’s collapse, i.e., the 2024 results were an aberration and the SP-led coalition’s There is no competition. For the BJP led NDA in the state.
However, this victory should not be interpreted too much as by-elections generally give incumbent government candidates a good chance of victory, as data and history show. Congress, AAP, TMC, BJP and CPIM have won most of the by-elections. KarnatakaPunjab, west bengalBihar/Uttarakhand/Assam/UP/Rajasthanand Kerala respectively.
2) Yogi is the undisputed leader of UP BJP.
Yogi Adityanath’s hands have been strengthened by the results. He had to face criticism after his shocking defeat in the general elections. After all, Uttar Pradesh was the main reason why the BJP could not get its simple majority. This has also strained his relations with PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, who hold him responsible for his dependence on NDA allies.
OBC leader and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, who lost the leadership race to Yogi in 2017 despite leading the campaign, also hit out at him, claiming that thankfully Bigger than the opposition. Now after BJP’s victory, Maurya has claimed that SP should have no hope of coming to power in the state till 2047. He also accused the party of misleading the backward classes and Dalits by forging an alliance with the BSP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Assembly elections and Congress in 2024.
3) Akhilesh needs to find a new narrative
Akhilesh coined the term “PDA”, which benefited him in the general elections as he got good support from Muslims and Yadavs as well as Kurmis and non-Jatav Dalits, increasing his vote base. The caste census pitch helped the SP-Congress alliance win over a section of OBCs and Dalits. However, as we have seen in Maharashtra, the same issue cannot be encashed twice.
Akhilesh will have to find a new story to take advantage of the 10-year anti-incumbency wave in the 2027 assembly elections. They will have to raise issues like inflation, unemployment and law and order to capitalize on the dissatisfaction of the poor and youth. must also be prepared to neutralize Any girl sissy-type scheme that could be introduced in the future and negate any natural dissatisfaction among the voters,
