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With the fall of the Assad regime, Syria now finds itself fragmented and divided into three major factions, each with external supporters and distinct goals:
1. Led by Syrian opposition forces : These groups, backed by Türkiye, now control central Syria, stretching from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan.
Opposition forces range from former jihadists from the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to secular groups who broke away from Assad’s forces after the 2011 uprising.
2. Kurdish forces: Kurdish groups control an area bordering northeastern Syria, Türkiye to the north, and Iraq to the east. They continue to receive from the United States, which has established military bases in the area. The support risks increasing tensions with Turkey, which views Kurdish empowerment as a threat to its territorial integrity.
3. Alawite Forces: Assad supporters, mainly based in coastal areas of western Syria, maintain strong ties with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah terrorist group. Once captured by the opposition, these areas could serve as strongholds for remnants of Assad-aligned groups, perpetuating sectarian divisions.
The sharp divisions between these groups coupled with the absence of a mutually acceptable mediator suggest that Syria may now face prolonged instability and conflict.
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime has had a profound impact on key players in the Middle East.
Sunni rebel forces with strong Turkish support took advantage of a moment of weakness in Syria. The Assad regime’s allies were concerned – Russia with its ongoing war in Ukraine, and Iran with its ongoing conflict with Israel and its proxy. This gave the rebels a strategic opportunity to advance rapidly from Syria to the capital, Damascus.
Türkiye already effectively controls a strip of territory in northern Syria, where its forces are fighting Syrian Kurdish forces. Now, with the victory of its Syrian opposition allies, Turkey looks to expand its political and military influence in Syria, creating more challenges for the Kurdish minority.
