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AAP’s success so far in Delhi involves two elements – winning over a section of voters who voted for the BJP at the national level and consolidating the entire anti-BJP vote, a large share of which goes to the Congress at the national level.
Let’s look at the arithmetic. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got 54 percent votes and AAP-Congress alliance got 43 percent votes (AAP 24 percent, Congress 19 percent). To win Delhi again, AAP will have to retain as much of the consolidated opposition vote as possible and, in addition, win over almost one in six voters who voted for the BJP.
Its import from BJP and Congress needs to be seen from this perspective.
For example, Seelampur and Seemapuri are two areas where the AAP-Congress alliance secured more votes than the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Since both were on the North-East Delhi Lok Sabha seat, which was in the Congress quota, it became necessary for AAP to capture the Congress base in these areas. That is why he has brought with him prominent Congress faces Chaudhary Matin Ahmed and Veer Singh Dhingan from both these areas.
Similarly, by bringing in Jitendra Shanti and Anil Jha from the BJP, AAP is trying to do two things: take a part of the BJP base in these seats and deprive the BJP of its key faces in these areas.
There is another element in this.
In every seat, there are voters who vote according to party preference or preference of the CM or PM candidate, as well as voters who vote based on the popularity of the local candidates contesting the election.
Over the past decade, elections in Delhi had become increasingly localized – Lok Sabha elections have been a mandate in favor of PM Narendra Modi, while assembly elections have been a mandate in favor of CM Arvind Kejriwal. The popularity of individual candidates matters less.
However, this time AAP realizes that in some seats, it may need the additional votes brought by the candidates and hence will focus on entrants from other parties. Kejriwal not being the CM at present also makes the personal campaign a little difficult.
Although it is a party that emerged from a protest movement against the political class, AAP has fielded political turncoats in the past as well.
Minister Imran Hussain and Tughlakabad MLA Sahi Ram, both were earlier BSP councilors and are now established in AAP for almost a decade. Then veteran leaders of Old Delhi Shoaib Iqbal and Parlad Singh Sahni joined AAP before the 2020 elections and now their sons are also joining the party.
However, these leaders joined the party at a time when the party did not have many established faces. The acquisitions this time are different in terms of scale as well as the fact that they are replacing existing AAP faces.
AAP is in an uphill battle as the BJP, even after defeat, has consistently demonstrated the ability to retain and even increase its vote share – it had 32 per cent votes in 2015, 38 per cent in 2020 and 32 per cent in the 2022 MCD elections. Secured 39 percent votes. In the MCD elections, it was only 3 percentage points behind AAP with 42 percent, while Congress was third with 11 percent.
Your main challenge is to keep BJP below 40 percent and Congress below 5 percent.
