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The recent meeting highlights that a combination of factors will complexly shape India’s engagement with Afghanistan in the future.
Firstly, China has increased its influence in this region. China was one of the first countries to formalize diplomatic relations with the Taliban-led government by appointing an ambassador to Kabul in September 2023, followed by a Taliban representative as ambassador to Beijing in 2024. Rukh reiterated.
China has also deepened its economic involvement in Afghanistan, such as the $540 million investment deal signed with the Taliban by Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company (CAPEIC) to extract oil from the Amu Darya Basin in 2023, allowing it Became the first significant energy extraction. The contract with a foreign firm that Taliban 2.0 had since the takeover.
Later, in 2024, China also hinted at possible tariff-free trade with Afghanistan, which would give the stable, though resource-rich, economy access to Chinese markets, particularly for minerals such as lithium, iron and copper. Furthermore, China has also expressed interest in integrating Afghanistan into its much-publicized geo-strategic project, the Belt and Road Initiative. The Taliban has also shown its readiness to participate in such projects.
India has to contend with another regional actor, PakistanThe border dispute along the Durand Line has escalated, with the Taliban’s support for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has recently stepped up its attacks within Pakistan – including most recently the killing of mine workers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Kidnapping is involved.
India should also focus on creating opportunities to strengthen its partnership with Tehran. Given Iran’s domestic challenges and tensions with Israel, India can expand its strategic options by taking advantage of shared concerns, including instability in Afghanistan and its adverse impact on regional security.
India should focus beyond Chabahar to upgrade infrastructure and operationalize trade corridors connecting Chabahar to Afghanistan through the Zaranj-Delaram Highway. However, with Iran, India will have to navigate its way through the bumpy terrain with competing interests of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
A distant but essential mutual partner, Russia, is currently embroiled in the Ukraine war. However, this has not stopped him from engaging with Afghanistan. Russia has softened its stance towards Taliban.
The Taliban government delegation had gone to participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in 2022, which remained in the headlines. Last year, Russia proposed delisting the Taliban as a banned terrorist organization, with Vladimir Putin calling it a “necessary step.”
Russia’s involvement with the Taliban, as well as its growing economic ties with Pakistan, could complicate India’s security calculations, especially with regard to regional stability. This underlines the need for India to realign it.
