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Rebel candidates from both Congress and BJP are contesting as independents in many constituencies, so the possibility of vote splitting is high. Often motivated by internal party dissent, these rebel candidates have turned straightforward battles into complex multi-cornered contests. For example, in Daryapur, both factions of the Shiv Sena are competing with rebels from the Congress and the BJP, creating a battleground where traditional party loyalties are being tested.
The impact of these cleavages is particularly significant in constituencies where electoral margins have historically been low. In the 2019 assembly elections, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – an alliance of the Congress, NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena – secured 43.71 per cent of the votes, giving the edge to the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, which secured 43.55 per cent of the votes.
Moreover, the rural and agricultural composition of Vidarbha’s electorate adds another layer of complexity. The region has a high proportion of tribal and farming communities, whose concerns differ from those of urban voters in western Maharashtra. Both the BJP and the Congress have designed their campaigns to attract these communities, but it is not clear which party will be successful in uniting them. The NCP, traditionally strong in rural Vidarbha, is also facing a test of its grassroots organizational strength in view of its internal divisions.
