rewrite this content and keep HTML tags
Pollsters talk to the same group of voters. So, why do they call differently?
There are many reasons for the inequalities. While pollsters take scientific samples, voters may or may not respond in the same scientific manner. For example, some polling groups may be less fearful of participating in such surveys, others may not.
Furthermore, some (if not very many) voters may actually lie to interviewers (for whatever reason). The surveyor then needs to make corrections and often uses historical information to do so.
In this backdrop, it is not easy for agencies to predict who will win. However, differences in their opinions may still provide important conclusions.
-
If the NDA wins Maharashtra and loses Jharkhand, as some pollsters suggest, it means the Ladki Bahin/Maiya Samman scheme has worked in both the states. If NDA wins in both the states, it means that the girl child scheme works in Maharashtra, but a similar scheme does not work in Jharkhand, which is contradictory.
-
If Mahayuti wins Maharashtra, it will suggest that issues like agrarian crisis, inflation, unemployment, rural distress, corruption and Maratha agitation have been overcome by the Ladki Bahin Yojana and micro-management of the BJP.
-
If the MVA wins, as predicted by the two agencies, it means exactly the opposite, i.e., all bread and butter issues matter and soft bribing the voters does not work.
-
If JMM led alliance wins Jharkhand then tribals asmita (Identity/Pride) played an important role which defeated BJP batenge to tienge narrative. This will establish Hemant Soren as the undisputed leader of the tribals.
-
If NDA wins Jharkhand, BJP’s alleged divisive politics worked and non-tribals united behind BJP in large numbers.
-
If the NDA wins both Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the BJP will be able to prove that the 2024 general election was an exception and that Modi is coming back with a bang (especially after Haryana). After this it will push controversial bills like UCC, Waqf, One Nation One Election etc.
-
If the NDA loses Maharashtra and Jharkhand, it will highlight that the Modi magic is indeed fading, and unemployment and inflation remain big issues, as the general election results show.
But, treat exit polls like popcorn.
Exit polls stay in the minds of audiences and customers longer than opinion poll surveys. Therefore, the pressure to deliver accurate results is very high. This is where the background of the surveyors matters a lot.
Between the last day of elections and the day of counting, exit polls quench our curiosity and enthusiasm. Even if they’re wrong, they provide an engaging start that keeps us hooked until the end of the day, like the first scene of a movie. Therefore, it would be better not to consider exit polls as anything more than popcorn.
(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be contacted at @PoliticalBaba on Twitter (formerly Twitter). This is an opinion and the views expressed above are those of the author. The Quint Neither endorses nor is responsible for it.)
