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Now, in the context of resources, two AIMIM candidates are finding it difficult to compete with AAP, BJP and Congress. Shifa-ur-Remon is an activist and his family has to crowd the campaign. Tahir Hussain was once one of the richest businessmen in the region, but most of his accounts are frozen by the government, so his family is also facing a major resource crunch. In the end, the possibilities of both candidates depend on the degree on which their emotional appeal resonates with Muslim voters.
The 1993 assembly elections and 2008 and 2009 Okhla elections show that Muslims of Delhi have voted to punish the Congress on the issue of communalism and human rights. The 2022 MCD election showed that even AAP could be punished in the same way. The work that is doing in favor of both the candidates is that it is not only about ideological issues, both seats have an important degree of resentment against AAP, as well as due to civil problems.
So even though Muslim votes are divided into two ways, it may be difficult for the BJP to win the seat.
The case of Mustafabad is different. BJP is a strong contender in the seat. In fact, the party won the seat between the AAP Wave in 2015, mainly due to the division of vote between AAP and Congress.
Mustafabad has 40 percent of the Muslim population, lower than Okhla. The degree of communal polarization is very high and it was the most affected area of the 2020 violence. Vote discrimination between major castes and Dalits, and migrants and non-resident Hindus is also very low.
If two of the three Muslim candidates – AAP’s Adeel Ahmed Khan, Congress’s Ali Mehdi and AIMIM’s Tahir Hussain also have a vote division, then the BJP may have a good chance to win the seat.
AIMIM in Mustafabad is a factor that is from the Hussain Saifi community which is present in large number in the seat. AAP candidate Adeel Ahmed Khan is also known as his counterpart in Okhla, Amanatullah Khan, who is now an established leader in the region.
An important factors that not only two AIMIM candidates but also in Muslim pockets, Congress candidates are suspected within Muslim voters that if the BJP comes to power at the state level, then the matter may deteriorate for the community in terms of the case. Weapons of equipment such as bulldozers along with ignoring civic.
If this feeling achieves humility, then there may be a consolidation in favor of AAP.
