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3. Community and seat-specific mobility
The dynamics within Delhi’s demographic groups have seen some changes since the 2020 elections. The BJP has earned some profit to some extent among the priest voters and among the Dalits. On the other hand, this Jat is facing some damage among voters. The communal polarization in Northeast Delhi has then decreased compared to 2020. But this factor cuts in both ways. On the one hand, it has brought BJP-organized seats in competitions like Karawal Nagar and Rohtas Nagar, on the other hand, lack of Muslim consolidation in Mustafabad and a potential three-way partition between AAP, Congress and AIMIM made BJP a serious contender. Is. In the seat.
Another community viewing an interesting internal churning is Sikh voters. The BJP has fielded more Sikh candidates than before, bringing leaders like Tarvinder Marwah and Arvinder to the BJP with the return of Lovely and Harshan Singh Balli from the Congress. However, the negative sentiment against the BJP has not been fulfilled among the Sikhs, so the benefit of the party in this section will be largely due to individual candidates and there will not be such a big change for the party.
Among the Muslims, the full consolidation behind the AAP in 2020 was mainly going on at that time due to the anti-CAA protest and there was a huge feeling of voting to defeat the BJP. This time, AAP is facing upside down in 2-3 seats. In Okhla, AAP Strongman Amanatullah Khan is facing a very serious battle with AIMIM’s Shifa-ur-Remon, who has been jailed under UAPA for his involvement in anti-CAA protests.
In Mustafabad, AIMIM’s Tahir Hussain, another UAPA prisoner, and Ali Mehdi of Congress have firmly campaigned, making the seat difficult for AAP. On the other hand, AAP has reversed the damage faced in Sealampur in the MCD election, which was brought from the Congress to the board’s experienced leader Chaudhary Matin Ahmed and his son Chaudhary Zubair was brought from the seat.
Then Kirari was dominated by Bihari migrants, AAP has brought from BJP to Anil Jha, in an attempt to stop an innings of this vote. While the BJP’s profit among Dalits seems limited, the party is very optimistic about its outreach among the priest voters.
To what extent the BJP succeeded or failed in changing this demographic, this election can prove to be decisive.
